Since March, Bitcoin has experienced a steady upward trend, surpassing key milestones such as $70,000, $71,000, and $72,000, culminating in a record high of $73,000 on March 12th. Various perspectives exist regarding the driving forces behind this surge. Some attribute it to significant investments pouring into the Bitcoin spot ETF market, while others attribute it to the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April.
The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, resulting in a new historical high, is welcomed news for participants in the Bitcoin market. This milestone indicates that all Bitcoin addresses are currently experiencing profitability. Moreover, the upward trajectory of Bitcoin's price has contributed to a corresponding rise in hash rate, reflecting increased mining activity and network security.
As the Bitcoin halving approaches within the next 40 days, miners have experienced a significant boost due to the continuous rise in hash rate. The hash rate, an essential metric indicating mining profitability, has been steadily increasing. According to data from the Hashrate Index, the current earnings per PH/s of hash rate stand at $120.04, with this month's average reaching $112.31 per PH/s – the highest performance seen in nearly a year.
Now, let's delve into the current earnings of various models of Bitcoin mining rigs. Kafka Mining official website provides insightful data through their "Mining Machine Profit Ranking," offering a comprehensive overview of the performance of mainstream Bitcoin mining rigs at this juncture.
The calculations provided below are grounded on an assumed electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), along with the existing mining difficulty level of 83.95 terahashes per second (T). These metrics are crucial factors influencing the profitability of Bitcoin mining operations.
WhatsMiner M63S(390T)
Electricity Cost: $8.65
24H Revenue: 0.0006084 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00048201 BTC
Break-even: $14217.61
Antminer S21 Hyd.
Electricity Cost: $6.43
24H Revenue: 0.0005226 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00042865 BTC
Break-even: $12303.86
WhatsMiner M66S(298T)
Electricity Cost: $6.61
24H Revenue: 0.00046487 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00036829 BTC
Break-even: $14219.02
Antminer S21
Electricity Cost: $4.2
24H Revenue: 0.00031199 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00025062 BTC
Break-even: $13461.96
Whatsminer M30S+
Electricity Cost: $4.08
24H Revenue: 0.00015599 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00009638 BTC
Break-even: $26155.52
Antminer S19
Electricity Cost: $3.9
24H Revenue: 0.00014819 BTC
Daily Profit: 0.00009121 BTC
Break-even: $26317.56
The Bitcoin halving, occurring roughly every 210,000 blocks, slashes the block reward by half until the total supply hits 21 million BTC. The exact timing hinges on Bitcoin's block generation rate. At present, if the halving were imminent, the daily earnings of these mining rigs would also halve. Models utilizing 7nm and higher power chips might edge closer to their shutdown thresholds, potentially encountering unprofitable scenarios.
Take, for instance, the Whatsminer M30S+. In the event of a halving, its daily output would be slashed by half, dwindling to 0.000077995 BTC. Consequently, its shutdown threshold would settle at $52,311.04. Similarly, for the Antminer S19, the shutdown threshold stands at $52,635.13.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that these calculations hinge on the assumption of static variables such as mining difficulty and Bitcoin's price, a condition that diverges significantly from real-world dynamics.
Firstly, it's essential to understand that mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, directly impacting miners' daily output. For instance, in the most recent Bitcoin difficulty adjustment on March 14th, the average block generation speed was 9 minutes and 27 seconds, with the difficulty increasing by 5.79%. Currently, the average block generation speed stands at 10 minutes and 48 seconds, suggesting the possibility of a decrease in the next difficulty adjustment. If halving occurs and some miners exit the network, those with less efficient setups might still find profitability after the difficulty adjustment.
Additionally, the price of Bitcoin is subject to real-time fluctuations. Considering historical patterns and the current market momentum, there's a chance for Bitcoin's price to double post-halving, reaching $100,000 or beyond. In such a scenario, miners' profitability could remain steady or even improve.
Throughout history, each Bitcoin halving event has triggered a restructuring of the mining industry's market dynamics. At this juncture, miners must focus on enhancing the energy efficiency ratio of their mining rigs to minimize operational costs, a crucial factor in sustaining profitability. Simultaneously, they need to closely monitor Bitcoin price fluctuations and adapt their mining strategies accordingly.
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